It matters every bit what the American people think

Last night, American voters delivered a stunning verdict in the 2026 midterm elections.

The verdict

It was a resounding victory for the Democratic Party. Kansas, which Trump carried by 16 points two years ago, elected Adam Hamilton, the first Democrat it has sent to the Senate in almost 100 years.¹ Texas, which he carried by 14, elected James Talarico and ended a Democratic Senate drought that went back to 1988.²

Voters also made history. Keisha Lance Bottoms will be the first Black woman governor anywhere in the country,³ Deb Haaland the first Native American woman elected governor in US history,⁴ and Peggy Flanagan the first Native American woman elected to the Senate.⁵

The message was not subtle. In exit polls,¹ 75% of voters said the economy is in rough shape, 44% said their finances are worse than two years ago, and 43% said one reason for their vote was to express opposition to Trump.⁶

Opinion, on a delay

I kept thinking of an interview on the war with Iran. The reporter asks his guest whether the opinions of the American public still matter. The guest insists that they matter every bit: Americans have the right to vote and to speak freely. The reporter pushes back. Public support for the war is low. If most Americans oppose it and it goes ahead anyway, in what sense does their opinion matter?

On Tuesday, 63% of voters told exit pollsters that the US made the wrong decision in taking military action against Iran.⁶ Nobody asked them beforehand. Americans don’t vote on wars; they vote on the people who start them, and only when the calendar says so.

So opinion arrives late. That is the reporter’s point, and it is also the answer to it. Public opinion did not stop the war, and for two years there was reason to wonder whether it counted at all. Then the calendar came around, and it counted every bit.

The American people spoke

Not every electorate uses its calendar this way. In January 2025, 81% of Canadians approved of Justin Trudeau’s resignation.⁷ Three months later, they gave his party a fourth consecutive mandate² under Mark Carney.⁸

Americans are less forgiving. The midterm is, in effect, a standing appointment to complain.

Last night, the American people spoke, and they spoke loudly. Whether the people they just elected were listening is another question.

Sources

1. Time on the Kansas Senate race. time.com
2. Texas Tribune on the Texas Senate race. texastribune.org
3. Rough Draft Atlanta on the Georgia governor’s race. roughdraftatlanta.com
4. Albuquerque Journal on the New Mexico governor’s race. abqjournal.com
5. MPR News on the Minnesota Senate race. mprnews.org
6. NBC News Exit Poll voters on Election Day. nbcnews.com
7. Ipsos poll of January 6 to 7, 2025. ipsos.com
8. Gowling WLG on the 2025 Canadian election. gowlingwlg.com